In two days’ time Philip Hammond will present his first budget to parliament; forecasting any changes he may be considering to the UK tax system is perhaps unwise.
If he remains committed to austerity, anticipating any potential fall-out from the Brexit process and maintaining (or more likely slowing down) the repayment of national debt, it is difficult to see where savings can come from to fund tax give-aways.
Most of the annual tax allowances for 2017-18 have already been published so what we may see are commitments to ease taxation in future years. There have been rumours that the UK may be promoted as a low-tax area to draw non-EU business to the UK after Brexit. Perhaps we will see a promise to reduce corporation tax below 17%, the rate it is predicted to be from April 2020, or bring forward the reduction to 17%.
Other predictions include:
Increasing stamp duty thresholds for first-time buyers.
Setting a fixed rate for pensions tax relief – 33 per cent has been mooted.
Taking the sting out of the recently announced business rate increases.
Efforts to simplify tax compliance for businesses.
Additionally, we may see a start towards the alignment of rules for NIC and income tax, removing or closing the disparity between the overall tax and NIC payable by the self-employed and employed persons.
In some respects, tax payers, their advisors and HMRC have their hands full implementing tax changes already announced. Most impactful is Making Tax Digital and the necessity for the self-employed to make quarterly data uploads from April 2018.
Many of us are hoping that Mr Hammond will opt for a gently-gently approach. By this time next week, we will know if he agrees.